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Department of Health and Human Services
Council on Graduate Medical Education
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Figure 4B-Specialist Physician Supply in Patient Care Under Various Specialty Mix Scenarios

This set of line graphs compare the COGME requirements for physician specialists with various projections of physician supply under various specialty mix scenarios. It shows that the specialist ratio well exceeds the upper limit of the requirements range under all scenarios that range from 30 percent to 60 percent generalists. Under the current mix of 30 percent generalists and 70 percent specialists, the number of specialists will exceed the requirements range by a substantial amount; this gap will increase by 2010. If no reduction in first year residents occurs, only a reduction of specialists to 40 percent of current graduates would result in reductions approximating the specialist requirement range in 2020.

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