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Department of Health and Human Services
Council on Graduate Medical Education
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Figure 6A-Generalist Physician Supply Under Alternative Specialty Mix Scenarios When Physician Output is Reduced to 110% of United States Medical Graduates

This set of graphs compare physician generalist requirements of COGME to various specialty mix alternatives when the supply of total residents is reduced to 110 percent of US medical school graduates. The graphs show that a reduction to 110 percent of USMGs in first year positions without modification in the generalist/specialist mix provides only modest reductions in the specialist-to-population ratio while the ratio of generalist positions lies below the midpoint of the requirements range. If the total number of residents is reduced to 110 percent of USMGs and the percentage of generalists is increased to 50 percent, the ratio of generalists-to-population will be 77 per 100,000-below the upper end of the requirement range in the year 2010. Were the mix to increase to 60 percent generalists, the ratio of generalists-to-population would exceed the requirements range by the year 2020.


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