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Department of Health and Human Services
Council on Graduate Medical Education
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Figure 6B-Specialist Physician Supply Under Alternative Specialty Mix Scenarios When Physician Output is Reduced to 110% of United States Medical Graduates

This set of graphs compare physician specialist requirements of COGME to various specialty mix alternatives when the supply of total residents is reduced to 110 percent of US medical school graduates. If the total number of residents is reduced to 110 percent of USMGs and the percentage of generalists is increased to 50 percent, the ratio of specialists-to-population will fall to a level of 134 per 100,000B 87,000 specialists above the requirement range in the year 2010. Were the mix to increase to 60 percent generalists, the ratio of specialists-to-population would drop within the requirements range by the year 2020.

Taken together, both Figures 6A and 6B indicate that both a reduction in trainees to at least 110 percent of USMGs as well as an increase in proportion of generalists to 50 percent will be bring generalist and specialist population ratios toward the upper limits of their respective requirement ranges.


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